Hussain I; Department of Anesthesiology, Weill Cornell Medicine, United States.
Zeepvat J; Reid MC; Czaja S; Pryor KO; Boyer R
Computer Methods & Programs in Biomedicine. 271:108980, 2025 Nov.
OBJECTIVES: Predicting preoperative cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is
crucial for assessing the risk of complications and adverse outcomes in
patients undergoing surgery. CRF is formally evaluated through submaximal
exercise testing with cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) or the
6-minute walk test (6MWT). However, formal CRF testing is impractical as a
preoperative screening tool. Wrist-worn devices with actigraphy and heart
rate monitoring have become increasingly capable of predicting
physiological measurements. Our aim was to develop a clinically
interpretable machine learning (ML) model using wearable-derived
physiological data to predict CRF for older adults, and to access whether
this model can accurately estimate the 6MWT distances for preoperative
risk evaluation.
METHODS: We examined heart rate and activity data collected from Fitbit
devices worn by older adults (N = 65) who were scheduled to undergo major
noncardiac surgery. Data collection took place over a 1-week period prior
to surgery while participants engaged in their typical daily activities.
Our primary aim was to leverage this wearable technology to forecast CRF
among this group. We employed a machine-learning ensemble regression model
to predict CRF, using 6MWT outcomes as an index. Further, we applied the
shapley feature attribution approach to gain insights into how specific
features derived from wearable data contribute to CRF prediction within
the model, aiding in personalized fitness prediction.
RESULTS: Adults with higher CRF exhibited elevated levels of
moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), maximal activity energy
expenditure (aEEmax), heart rate recovery (HRR), and non-linear heart rate
variability (HRV). These measures increased concurrently with improvements
in 6MWT outcomes. Our regression models, employing random forest and
linear regression techniques, demonstrated strong predictive capabilities,
with coefficient of determination values of 0.91 and 0.81, respectively,
for estimating CRF. The shapley feature attribution approach elucidated
those greater levels of MVPA, aEEmax, HRR, and nonlinear dynamics of HRV
serve as reliable indicators of enhanced CRF test performance.
CONCLUSION: The integration of wearable data-driven activity and heart
rate metrics forms the basis for utilizing wearables to provide
preoperative cardiorespiratory fitness assessments, supporting surgical
risk stratification, personalized prehabilitation, and improved patient
outcomes.
VI 1